Sudden stops, sectoral reallocations, and the real exchange rate / Timothy J. Kehoe, Kim J. Ruhl.
Material type:
TextSeries: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ; no. 14395.Publication details: Cambridge, Mass. : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2008Description: 40 p. : ill. ; 22 cmSubject(s): Financial crises -- Developing countries -- Econometric models | Financial crises -- Mexico -- Econometric models | Balance of trade -- Mexico | Foreign exchange rates -- MexicoLOC classification: HB1 | .N38 no. 14395Online resources: Click here to access online Summary: A sudden stop of capital flows into a developing country tends to be followed by a rapid switch from trade deficits to surpluses, a depreciation of the real exchange rate, and decreases in output and total factor productivity. Substantial reallocation takes place from the nontraded sector to the traded sector. We construct a multisector growth model, calibrate it to the Mexican economy, and use it to analyze Mexico's 1994-95 crisis. When subjected to a sudden stop, the model accounts for the trade balance reversal and the real exchange rate depreciation, but it cannot account for the decreases in GDP and TFP. Extending the model to include labor frictions and variable capital utilization, we still find that it cannot quantitatively account for the dynamics of output and productivity without losing the ability to account for the movements of other variables.
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University of Macedonia Library Βιβλιοστάσιο Β (Stack Room B) | Research Papers | HB1.N38 no. 14395 (Browse shelf (Opens below)) | 1 | Available | 0013115740 |
Includes bibliographical references (p. 27-29).
A sudden stop of capital flows into a developing country tends to be followed by a rapid switch from trade deficits to surpluses, a depreciation of the real exchange rate, and decreases in output and total factor productivity. Substantial reallocation takes place from the nontraded sector to the traded sector. We construct a multisector growth model, calibrate it to the Mexican economy, and use it to analyze Mexico's 1994-95 crisis. When subjected to a sudden stop, the model accounts for the trade balance reversal and the real exchange rate depreciation, but it cannot account for the decreases in GDP and TFP. Extending the model to include labor frictions and variable capital utilization, we still find that it cannot quantitatively account for the dynamics of output and productivity without losing the ability to account for the movements of other variables.
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